Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Fact #35: This is what it looks like to lose control of City Council

(click for larger version)

The above chart shows the percentage of votes cast by each councillor that aligned with the ultimate vote outcome (i.e., they voted yes when the item carried and no when it failed, absences ignored) over the four years of council. The vast majority of councillors stayed in the 90-95% range over the four years, but as the chart shows there were a number of significant trends:

  1. In 2011 the Ford brothers were reasonably successful at pushing their agenda through Council, with alignment in the high 80s. They entered the term with a strong electoral mandate and an ability to achieve majorities, if not consensus, on their votes. However, note the telling fragmentation on council, with a number of councillors actively resisting the Fords' pressure tactics (these are the Paula Fletchers and Adam Vaughans). Note that the 2011 term includes December 2010.
  2. By 2012 the tide started to change against Rob and Doug. Their notorious strong-arming of councillors began to backfire, and their opponents were increasingly successful at achieving their agendas. Just one year after election the Fords had lost their control on council
  3. 2013 saw their remaining loyalists peel off and join the crowd. The crack scandal and subsequent stripping of mayoral powers meant that it was much easier to achieve consensus and get things done. Doug and Rob were now losing a quarter of the decisions.
  4. Note that by 2014 the two Fords had essentially given up, throwing contrarian votes seemingly for the hell of it. At this point their only kindred spirit was the morally reprobate Giorgio Mammoliti. 

Why should I care?

Remember when Rob Ford said that he could work with City Council? Those were fun times. Despite a significant electoral plurality and significant resources at their disposal, the Ford brothers utterly failed to push their agenda through Council. The result was two wasted years of disruption, protest votes and absenteeism. If Doug Ford wins the 2014 mayoral race, he has utterly failed to demonstrate how the outcome would be any different the second time around.

How do I know you're not lying:

http://app.toronto.ca/tmmis/getAdminReport.do?function=prepareMemberVoteReport 

Source Data:

Councillor 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ainslie Paul 91% 88% 94% 94%
Augimeri Maria 77% 93% 92% 94%
Bailao Anna 91% 96% 96% 97%
Berardinetti Michelle 94% 94% 96% 95%
Carroll Shelley 81% 92% 91% 92%
Cho Raymond 84% 94% 95% 95%
Cole Josh 88% 94% 94% 93%
Crawford Gary 93% 94% 94% 95%
Crisanti Vincent 94% 94% 92% 94%
Davis Janet 77% 91% 91% 92%
DeBaeremaeker Glenn 83% 94% 94% 95%
DelGrande Mike 89% 85% 84% 87%
DiGiorgio Frank 91% 92% 90% 93%
Doucette Sarah 81% 93% 93% 94%
Filion Jon 76% 92% 94% 94%
Fletcher Paula 75% 92% 92% 92%
Ford Doug 88% 82% 75% 74%
Ford Rob 87% 78% 75% 68%
Fragedakis Mary 78% 92% 94% 94%
Grimes Mark 85% 87% 92% 93%
Holyday Doug 89% 82% 82%
Kelly Norman 91% 88% 89% 93%
Layton Mike 81% 93% 93% 95%
Lee Chin 90% 95% 95% 96%
Leon Peter 91% 95%
LindsayLuby Gloria 91% 94% 93% 94%
Maloney James 96%
Mammoliti Giorgio 89% 87% 84% 70%
Matlow Josh 86% 94% 90% 92%
McConnell Pam 78% 92% 93% 95%
McMahon Mary-Margaret 86% 95% 94% 95%
Mihevic Joe 81% 93% 93% 95%
Milczyn Peter 92% 92% 94% 94%
Minnan-Wong Denzel 88% 88% 90% 88%
Moeser Ron 86% 91% 91% 92%
Nunziata Frances 91% 92% 90% 95%
Palacio Cesar 93% 94% 93% 94%
Parker John 90% 90% 87% 90%
Pasternak James 92% 94% 94% 92%
Perks Gord 79% 91% 92% 92%
Perruzza Anthony 79% 92% 91% 92%
Ramkhalawansingh Ceta 95%
Robinson Jaye 93% 93% 93% 94%
Shiner David 89% 88% 87% 88%
Stintz Karen 91% 96% 94% 93%
Thompson Michael 93% 92% 95% 94%
Vaughan Adam 77% 91% 91% 94%
WongTam Kristyn 79% 92% 92% 94%

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